Tag Archives: book trade

London Book Fair 2012: A Personal Perspective

I attended the London Book Fair at Earls Court this month; the first time in several years. I was left with several over-riding impressions.

The Fair remains the premier International Book Fair. It was busy – very busy – with 25,000 delegates, half from overseas, attracted by the 1,500 exhibitors from 57 countries. The Bookseller suggested that the USA DoJ ruling on the Agency Model (eBook pricing) had dampened the mood considerably for rights sales.

I am very much against this ruling as it simply hands yet more power to an already menacing monopoly. I applaud those Publishers who have decided to fight this rather simplistic ruling. Amazon has already done considerable damage to our High Streets, and not just to Bookselling. It’s quite foolish to view Amazon as a consumer champion.

China – this year’s Market Focus - with their visually stunning Fair Pavilion (designed by Yang Liu). The Market Focus logo was in the shape of a hand-fan as used by the Royal Family in China 1500 years ago. LBF reported that China had sent 1,200 people (including 50 authors) representing 180 publishers – quite a commitment! So why China? Well, English and Mandarin are the two dominant world languages and China is a vast country with a 1.3billion population speaking over 50 dialects. It’s projected to overtake the USA as the world’s largest economy within the next 20 years or so, and yet paradoxically it’s still 90th on the GDP index despite its recent spectacular economic growth.

The sheer size of the country with its many regional imbalances and huge social challenges is overseen by the pro-business centralised Government. For the Western creative industries, protection of Intellectual Property and Copyright remains the pressing issue. Good quality translation skills remain scarce.

There is the inevitable controversy over issues of censorship when judged by the ideals of liberal democracy. Indeed, the Fair’s impressive China and Europe Publishing Forum attracted a goodly number of silent placard waving protesters; ‘Free speech is not a crime’, ‘Stop literary persecution’. The London Evening Standard ran an interview this week with the Chinese author of Wild Swans in which she stated that, in her opinion, ‘Censorship in China is worse than it was 10 years ago’.

The Chinese Government oversees all media output through GAPP and it is this body which issues the requisite ISBN’s. Since 1949, China has published around 34,000 titles of British books within China. Apparently, ¼ of all books imported into China are from the UK! Through its 600+ Publishing Houses and with a workforce of nearly 57 thousand employees’, China has the largest publishing output in the world by volume (300,000 titles in 2009). It’s a mature and self-confident market set to generate revenues of $9.5billion in 2012. China is poised to take over from the USA in levels of scientific journal publishing.

There are 167,000 bookshops across China, with some state-of-the-art seven-story bookshops in the largest cities. The number of bricks and mortar shops is growing by almost 5% per year! The state-run chain, Xinhua (new China) has 6,483 outlets.

Why is this of any interest to us Brits? Because there are more people learning English in China than anywhere else in the world and more English speakers in China than in the rest of the English speaking world. Language learning is paramount. For publishers, this obviously represents a huge market and a pressing opportunity. There is a very attractive market for educational and English language publishers!

I was very struck by Pearson’s almost evangelical mantra, ‘Not just touching people, but transforming lives through learning’.

Islam – I was forcibly struck by the number of large and impressive Islamic publishing stands at LBF. These were in stark contrast to the mainly small booths of the Christian publishers, aside from the usual welcome presence of Lion Hudson PLC. Islam clearly has plenty of financial backing, is investing heavily in literature and is clearly committed to book distribution in a way that some Christians seem to have forgotten.

Print still dominates, at around 80-85% of the UK market and much smaller elsewhere in the world. We should keep the eBook ‘hype’ in perspective. The digital presence at the Fair was actually quite small, tucked away in one smallish zone. Interestingly, KOBO eReaders have said that 10% of their eBook sales are now for self-published authors. In China, authors are uploading self-published works in instalments, books which are then picked up by publishers and eventually making their way into bookshops; the reverse of our model in the West!

UK Publishers do increasingly view their role as ‘Content Providers’ delivered via various platforms but print currently continues to dominate their activity.

LBF 2012. Quite an event, and yet again, another reminder of just how quickly our world is changing. The tide of globalisation and digitalisation continues to alter the way we all do business yet the basic desire to read remains.

In his summing up, Lord Powell of Bayswater said, ‘The English language is the highway to bring the world to China’. I suspect that China is actually finding her way to the rest of the world!

View more LBF photos here.

Cross posted by Eddie Olliffe.

Post-Digital Armageddon: Jonny Gallant reflects on the future of the book trade

EBOOKS. Or should that be e-books? Or even ibooks if it’s Apple as the vendor. The fact that the book industry can’t even agree on its basic terminology is perhaps telling in and of itself, but however we spell the word, the ebook challenge isn’t going away anytime soon — but physical books, according to some, might be. Whatever your views on the matter, you need to move fast if you’d like to see those views taken into account in Christian Retailing magazine’s latest Vital Signs survey: the deadline for entries is this weekend, no later than November 13th.

And now my thanks once again to Alban Books’ Jonny Gallant as he follows up on his earlier contribution. Are we ready? I think not: welcome to the Post-Digital Armageddon…

Jonny Gallant, MD, Alban Books

Jonny Gallant, MD, Alban Books

AFTER MY LAST UKCBD GUEST POST, I was literally swamped by 2-and-a-half suggestions that I explore the promised Digital Armageddon further. Just for you I have looked into my foggy crystal ball and examined the entrails of 3 chickens (that’s publishing lunches for you) to come up with a few highly speculative visions of the future.I have long had a publishing mantra: “The author is not the enemy; the customer is not the enemy”. It’s something worth remembering every now and then. We’re all in this together, so why does it feel like we have competing interests?

With that in mind, I have had a go at being an author (writing under a pseudonym, I may be on your shelves… though probably not) and, last Christmas, I thought I would have a go at being a bookseller: I spent a fascinating day on the shop floor of Waterstone’s West End, Edinburgh. I hope it was just a seasonal anomaly, but 80% of queries were for the latest Katie Price or the bestseller from that irritating meerkat. I was also the victim of a bookselling cliché: someone came in and said ‘I can’t remember the title or the author, but it had a blue cover’. On reflection, that may have been a set-up. What I spectacularly lacked though, was the ability to recommend suitable titles.

This leads me to my first point: More than anyone else, the Christian Bookseller has a great responsibility to suggest ‘the right book’. No matter how sophisticated the algorithm, Amazon will never be able to offer the depth of knowledge, understanding and empathy that a good bookseller can provide. It’s an oldie, but a goodie.

Those of you who have seen my book, whatever you think of its contents, will probably agree it is a beautiful object. And if the physical book, as we’ve come to call it, is to resist the challenge of the ebook, it has to look like something worth buying, worth keeping.

— Julian Barnes, acceptance speech for the Man-Booker Prize 2011.

Secondly, after years of driving down production costs and creating more and more thin-papered, flimsy paperbacks, trends suggest that e-readers will e-radicate (excuse the pun – I promise it’s the only one) these grotty-glued excuses for books. There will no-longer be the ‘disposable’ printed book. Publishers are now starting to think about making a physical book something special again. The consumer will have no idea quite how special that book is unless they can actually see it and hold it before parting with their cash. Amazon can’t offer that either.

Thirdly: The way I see it, Alban is a sales and marketing operation. Inventory management is a necessary by-product of what we do. Those of you who have ever rung us up in urgent need of 25 copies of Esler’s Conflict and Identity in Romans only to be told you will have to wait 6 weeks will know that inventory management is an imperfect science. Digital or even POD books are able to negate this frustrating problem. Sadly, this is often going to knock the B&M bookseller out of the equation.

How can we persuade people that the 20% VAT we pay on a digital book pretty much negates all the savings on print and freight?

Finally, my greatest fear for the industry is the devaluing of the book. Discounting books to consumers has led, inevitably, to readers believing that £8.99 is an unreasonable price for a paperback. It is even worse with digital product – how can we persuade people that the 20% VAT we pay on a digital book pretty much negates all the savings on print and freight? None of us in this business is working to much (if any) profit margin, but the readers seem to find this hard to believe. The way that Amazon have sold books at a loss and vilified those publishers wishing to sell their digital product at a price they choose makes me furious. Sadly, I can offer no solution to this massive problem. My concern is that it will inevitably lead to an increasingly amateur and hobbyist publishing industry.

To conclude, things have got to change and they may well get worse before they get better. In the long term, I think that there remains a market-viable argument for the high street bookseller – especially the niche and specialist bookseller. I think that the product (and the service) will gradually become more high-end. I don’t know if publishers will still be shipping books over from the US in five years time. I don’t know if, in five years time, we will purchase an unedited, poorly-marketed, terribly-designed, ill-thought out ebook and think “what have we lost?!”

Discover more…

Wider Book Trade – Phew, 8 weeks that started the year

This list documents extraordinary activity in the wider Book Trade in a few short weeks;

  • UK book sales fell 3% in 2010, selling £56m less than in 2009
  • NIV Bible eBook tops the USA bestseller list over the New Year
  • 2011 marks the 400th anniversary of the King James Bible
  • Barnes & Noble USA do well over Christmas – thanks to their Nook eReader
  • Physical book sales continue to decline around the world
  • British Bookshops and Stationers go into administration
  • eBook debate intensifies – but with little clarity emerging
  • Digital Book World Conference is held in New York
  • Kindle; the most popular eBook reader – with sales overtaking paperbacks
  • Amazon record their first £10bn sales quarter
  • Waterstones owner HMV; shuts 11 UK stores, cuts HO jobs
  • WH Smith buy 22 British Bookshops and Stationers stores
  • UK Libraries under massive pressure due to imminent spending cuts
  • Borders USA enters Chapter 11 – and is effectively bankrupt
  • REDgroup Australia goes bust – leaving big UK debts
  • Borders Singapore shuts its doors
  • Zondervan loses its President and CEO, Moe Girkins 
  • Gardners launches the HIVE website in the UK
  • STL Distribution UK rebrands as Trust Media Distribution
  • Living Oasis has its ups and downs, causing some uncertainty

Only another 10 months left for this year – don’t hold your breath!

Time to go live with Hive?

THANKS TO MELANIE CARROLL of Unicorn Tree Books, Lincoln, for her latest comment on this new initiative from Gardners:

Hive: Shop locally online - beta site screenshot

Hive - Shop locally online (beta site screenshot)

… while me & Gareth discuss the differences looked for in an online ability between b&m and online sellers, good old Gardners just gets on and does the job to reveal things with an almost perfect timing for what were talking about here! Taking the idea of localbookshops.co.uk and the US Indiebound site to heart they are now almost here with http://www.hive.co.uk to check it out and look around just add /betasite to the addy.

If you’re an indie and have an account with Gardners then I’m pretty sure you’ll have recieved the details today in the post for your consideration – if you don’t already have an account with Gardners then maybe now might be a good time to consider it.

I also really think it’s time perhaps for someone to consider a fully Christian one too maybe, stronger together, weaker apart!

So ok for some it’s maybe not perfect – the affiliate percentage on some things is a tad lower than I get from some other places – but then this one is literally pretty much all done for me so maybe that more than makes up for it and at the end of the day as I said before as far as i’m concerned ‘every little bit helps’ and something is better than nothing!

Having said that I won’t be folding my own sites up, or even ignoring them – this for me will just be one more potential stream to serving my local customers in the ways that they want me to – there is room and plenty for all of us to work together and pick up trade from that working together if we really work together with goodwill and an ethic of community, friendship and fair trading in mind and at heart.

eBook sales and digital reader update

From January 24 – 26, the Publishing Industry will gather in New York for the Digital Book World Conference to debate the new technologies. I really wish I was going but, like me, you can follow it on Twitter during the coming week. As Christians in this industry, we simply cannot ignore such immense changes to our market. If you are part of Linked In, you could also join the group, Digital Book World.

Like it or not, the eBook revolution is here. There’s also a lot of puff around with some drawing parallels such as the shift from the horse to the automobile! Somehow I doubt it. Print is still pretty massive! However, a number of commentators, admittedly mostly American, are stating that this Christmas was absolutely a ‘change point’ in terms of the sale of eBooks. Barnes & Noble, the largest USA bookshop chain, announced it sold one million e-books on Christmas Day. The fact that they developed their own ‘Nook’ eReader has been credited with keeping them ahead of faltering rivals, Borders USA.  

USA Today’s ‘Best-Selling Books’ list demonstrated digital’s new popularity; their top six books outsold the print versions in the week following the Christmas holiday. Of the top 50, 19 had higher e-book than print sales. Perhaps not a great surprise when around 3 to 5 million eReaders were activated in that same week resulting in this surge of sales. The big question is; will it continue? It’s obviously still early days but insiders are predicting that by 2012 three in every 10 books could be delivered digitally. Publishers are aiding this trend by very quickly adding more and more back-list titles.

According to AAP sales figures in the USA, eBook sales were significantly up in November. At the same time, adult paperback sales were down 19% compared to the same period the previous year. Their release states, ‘eBook sales continue to grow, with a 130% increase over November 2009 ($46.6 million); year-to-date eBook sales are up 166%’. It will be interesting to see the December eBook figures when they are released as what starts in the USA tends to end up here.

Gartner predicted that more than 15.8 million e-readers will be in use by 2013.  Some in the industry have expressed surprise at the speed of this transition, which has quickly gained ground particularly in the area of mass market fiction. eBooks sales account for about 9% of the USA market. Bowker, the research company says sales may flatten this year but could still be twice as high as they were in 2010.

Within Publishing, there’s a lot of uncertainty about what to do about piracy and DRM (digital rights management). Should DRM be employed at all as it can so easily by cracked? Is piracy really such a threat to book publishers in the same way as it was for the music industry? The answers may be different depending on whether you are a small niche publisher or one producing high volume, high worth, popular titles. These days it’s just so easy to scan and digitise a printed book and put them up on a web site. For a really informative thread discussion here.

Google’s announcement earlier this week of its acquisition of eBook Technologies, a company that sells the technology used to operate digital reading devices is fascinating. Google by dint of its size, power, wealth and global reach has the ability to utterly transform the eBook landscape. Already consumers can browse and search through more than 3 million free books on its site.

Publishers are on the defensive. As eBook sales rise, the unspoken question is; will authors still need a publisher? It’s just possible than in the fast-approaching digital future that it will be the (online) retailers who will come to dominate the customer relationship. Why? Because it is the retailer who has the knowledge of their consumer base. They have the ability to market a book far more effectively. Why has Tesco been such a successful retailer? In one word; Clubcard! Consumer data and customer knowledge are all.

The future of eBook selling may therefore lie with the likes of Amazon, Apple and Eden. However, as of today, there are no Christian eBooks for sale on Eden.co.uk. As I write, one site launching to sell Christian eBooks is www.10ofthese.com - so I guess we shall see!

A way does need to be found quickly for small retailers to gain access to this market. Andrew Lacey from GLO has suggested something along the lines of the now defunct Crown customisable website?

What all this tells us is that retail as we know it will need to be reinvented if it is to survive. My view is that we have a few short months to act and make changes before the impact fully begins to bite.

eBook Sales – Weighing up the Digital Impact

Phil Groom was kind enough to invite me to cross-post from my personal blog where I have taken a periodic interest in the rise of the eBook. I’m fascinated by the explosive potential of their impact in our small niche within the wider book trade. Digital is clearly not going away but somehow it doesn’t quite feel real to us yet! It soon will. I contend that we all – publishers and retailers alike – need urgently to better understand what’s happening around us.

Retail as we’ve known it is under threat like never before. Major market forces are changing the High Street before our very eyes. Even since Christmas we’ve had news of Waterstones closing branches in order to meet their banking covenants and British Bookshops continues to trade but now under the watchful gaze of the administrator. Today HMV – the last major entertainment retailer apart from WH Smith – has brought in KPMG for advice on external banking and debt concerns. Content remains but format and delivery are all over the place. If you want to look at another industry under even greater pressure, just look at what’s happening to newspapers!

So here’s the post I ran several days ago;

Having castigated The Bookseller recently for poor journalism, I draw your attention to a superb and in-depth reporting piece looking at what life for the trade could look like in 2011. Bringing together the opinions of a wide range of UK book industry leaders it looks at, amongst other things, the likely impact of digital sales on the industry.

You can read the full article here but I want to highlight the main points of interest to High Street book retailers as they face the imminent digital challenge.

Amongst the key points of the article;

  • Industry chiefs unanimously earmark digital as a key area of opportunity in 2011
  • Digital sales have reached a tipping point and will grow further next year
  • Those booksellers not getting a good share of e-book sales are going to find business tougher than ever
  • The main challenge lies in supporting retailers in an uncertain economic environment
  • However, nearly 95% of all books sold in the UK in 2011 will still be in print format

To my mind, here is the killer statement; ‘Growing e-book sales could lead to the Total UK Consumer Market being negative in 2011 as they hit 7% of the adult trade market’.

Print may no longer be capable of ongoing growth. Fiction – in particular – and mass market publishing in general, is highly susceptible to this drift. How are High Street shops to deal with this change in their market? If print is dropping away, what steps do they need to take to get a bigger slice of the digital cake? If the High Street trade is not careful, it will be the publishers and not retailers that will benefit from an inevitable sales shift to digital.

Gardners’ respected commercial director, Bob Jackson, is quoted in the article as saying:

I think that the retailers who continue to focus on customer service and manage overheads will be doing the best they can. They need to stay very consumer focused. It won’t get any easier in 2011. We launched our digital service three years ago, so it’s available to every single retailer. I think the challenge might come more as retailers using e-books as part of their retail offering, I’m sure they [retailers] can be as creative as they have been to date. That’s the challenge’.

Faber Publisher, Stephen Page, said:

‘The big question is how retailers fared at the end of last year and how they will fare in 2011. Looking around the world I can see the retail environment changing and that change is not complete. Retailers have to adapt to a world with very powerful mass market retailing and online retailing and now there is a digital component too. Look at the REDGroup in Australia, Borders in the US. Here we have had a narrowing of the specialist chains to Waterstone’s and W H Smith, and it’s a question of how they adapt. Waterstone’s over the last nine months have been pursuing quite a different tack and it’s a question of where that gets them to. We all want a healthy retail environment. In 2011 we will see a hardening of the e-book market and a lot of people becoming habitual about reading electronically. We will catch up quickly with America – I’m estimating e-books will be 3-5% of the [UK] market in a year’s time’.

The long-serving chief executive of the Booksellers Association, Tim Godfray, stated:

‘This Millennium has seen a huge amount of change in the way books are sold and in the formats available. As ever, booksellers have shown great resilience and those who have adapted have survived. As we enter a new decade, only further change is on the cards. We face in particular three challenges. First, the Government cutbacks and the state of the economy; secondly, the digital economy; thirdly, the consumer having fewer leisure pounds to spend. But with challenges, there are opportunities. The tipping point concerning e-books has been reached and digital content is coming of age. The popularity of e-book readers demonstrates this. The selling of digital content is a threat to traditional booksellers, but it is also an opportunity. A lot has been written about the death of the printed book and the bookshop. Not far short of 95% of all books sold in the UK in 2011 will be in print format and booksellers will develop their offers, customer service and specialisations’.

Victoria Barnsley, chief executive of HarperCollins is quoted as saying:

Digital developments continue to present both the challenges and the opportunities for our industry. E-book sales more than trebled over the Christmas period as people rushed to buy e-books for their new gift devices. And, unlike some, I really do think the growth of the digital market is a huge opportunity for bookshops—not only to provide a unique and personal service to book lovers, which is hard to replicate online, but to capitalise on the new readers these devices are creating. …  finally, I believe that we should all fight vigorously to support and encourage a broad range of retail options on the high street and online which hugely benefits consumers, retailers and our own industry’.

Well done, The Bookseller – some fascinating opinions and really insightful reporting. I cannot help but think that we continue to be in very uncertain territory with even the most able minds in the trade pretty unclear as to how that future may turn out.

However, I am beginning to think that the tipping point for eBooks is beginning to tilt – albeit slowly but surely.

POSTSCRIPT – If all this gloom and uncertainty is getting you down then read these recent comments by the Editor of The Irish Times;

‘Yet there are opportunities for the retail sector. Barnes and Noble in the US have really got on top of things with their own device and have encouraged their customers to become digital readers. They’re looking at sales of about $400 million (€308 million) for digital content in a 12-month period – and that’s impressive’.  He believes, though, that there will always be a market for print books. ‘It might not be huge. It might be down to 30 per cent of the market in 10 years’ time, but there will still be a demand for physical books and the browsing experience that you can’t get from Amazon or the Book Depository’.

Update, 23/01/2011

The Lost Symbol and the Lost Hashtag #LBF09 #LBF

It’s a tricky business getting to grips with new media, especially when you’re dealing with a two thousand year old story — always assuming, of course, that Dan Brown’s new novel, The Lost Symbol, actually does take up the plot where The Da Vinci Code left off rather than lose it completely.

twitterBut this post isn’t about Dan Brown’s lost symbol: it’s about the book trade’s lost opportunity at this year’s London Book Fair — about twitter and the humble hashtag. It’s about a failure to seize the day or, more precisely, the twittersphere — the dynamic, live and interactive world of millions of prospective book buyers. Not, I hasten to add, to lay accusations or blame at anyone’s feet, but rather to help us think ahead, to help us find a way to do better next time and in other places.

“What’s a hashtag?” you ask. Easy: it’s a word with a # in front of it. Like this: #LBF; or this: #LBF09; or even this: #LIBF. Essentially it’s a key word chosen or created to link related tweets, which allows people to track a particular topic; and if everyone tweeting that topic uses it, it takes off, to become a trending topic: a topic in twitter’s top 10. Then more people join the conversation and so it grows. Used intelligently, a hashtag is one of the most powerful tools in a new media maven’s marketing toolbox. Allow Mari Smith [1] to explain:

Dan Brown enters the story on Monday, 20th April, the first day of the fair. Or rather, he should have entered the story. According to this week’s Bookseller (lead news story, p.3), the Random House announcement of a publication date for his Da Vinci Code sequel The Lost Symbol was Monday’s “main talking point at the first day of the London Book Fair.”

Except it wasn’t: I know, because I was there, listening and talking and tweeting my way around the place, and the first I heard of it was when I received my copy of the Bookseller on Friday.

I admit that I was there with my own agenda as a Christian bookseller: but how is it possible that an announcement of what is more or less guaranteed to be the biggest publishing event of 2009 — impacting both the mainstream and Christian marketplace — could simply pass me by? My mistake, it seems: I was interested in this year’s London Book Fair, so I was tracking #LBF09 rather than the generic #LBF, and I was following @theBookseller as my source of news.

But the announcement entered the twittersphere via @PublishersLunch at 4pm under #LBF and whilst a few people RT’d (retweeted) it, the Bookseller’s twitter announcement didn’t appear until 5.26pm — and was posted with neither a hashtag nor any other mention of the Fair (also strange: the Bookseller’s news report of the announcement doesn’t mention LBF either). 

To quote @andrewspong

It says a lot about an industry when an event can’t decide what its hashtag is: #LBF #LBF09 #LIBF. Hint: next year, use #LBF10

… and what it says, it seems to me, is that the book trade — booksellers, publishers and marketeers alike — simply doesn’t get twitter yet. 

Wakey wakey @theBookseller!! And wakey wakey LBF and the wider book trade.

[1] Mari’s video discovered via Jon Reed’s hashtags and gladrags (@publishingtalk). Thanks Jon — even if you did suggest the ‘wrong’ hashtags!!